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Episode 632: Super-Rotations Revisited, Perplexing Projections, and Other Emails
Date March 11, 2015 Summary Ben and Sam answer listener emails about the Nationals’ rotation, team projections they disagree with, the most interesting eras to cover, and more. Topics * Snake draft style lineups * Washington Nationals starting rotation * Hypothetical: Perfect scouting vs. injury prevention * Disagreements with PECOTA projections * Performance on 0-2 counts * What year in baseball would you cover? * Renaming a park after yourself Intro The Doors, "Crawling King Snake" Banter * Ben and Sam discuss Jose Iglesias' web-gem quality play without recording the out. Ben mentions when in Episode 265 they discussed another Jose Iglesias play. * Sam goes on a tangent about how the arbitrary rules of baseball were developed and that there must exist a sport (or sports) where he or Ben would be the best in the world. Email Questions * Jake: "What if lineups operated like snake drafts? How would you set your lineup?" * Aaron: "I remember when the Nationals signed Max Scherzer Sam decided he liked the deal under the assumption that the Nationals would be trading a starting pitcher, possibly Stephen Strasburg, as a consequence. Now that the Nationals seem content to hold on to their super rotation, would the two of you care to revisit that deal?" * Brian: "In light of today's developments, specifically the Cubs' big three prospects homering back to back to back and Marcus Stroman's ACL tear I have a hypothetical question. Imagine the baseball gods smiled down on you and offered the choice of either flawless scouting (for instance knowing a player's true ability after an afternoon of close observation) or flawless training that would prevent all non-contact injuries. For instance this hypothetical would prevent a pitcher's UCL from tearing but would not have prevented Giancarlo Stanton's fractured jaw. The ability would last for a finite period of time. Is one of those abilities more valuable to a team? Does it matter if the interval is one year, five years, or ten years? Is the choice dependent on the team you work for?" * Eric: "Which team's PECOTA projection do you disagree with most?" * Mike: "If you had to choose any year in baseball history that you could have a baseball podcast or widely read blog, what would it be? Covering the DiMaggio hit streak or Ted Williams' .400 season in 1941, the strike season for analysis on the gap between management and labor and how baseball could fix itself, the steroid era for all its interpretation and implications. I'm not asking this as what is your favorite season of all time, but more so what provides the best food for your thought as analysts? What aspects of the game get your juices going as writers and thinkers? What season would provide the most juice?" * Lilian (Hanover, Germany): "What stadium would you pick if you could name a stadium after you or your company?" Play Index * Sam's favorite split is how pitchers or hitters perform after 0-2 counts. He highlights some of his favorite facts from this. * In 2000 after 0-2 counts Pedro Martinez held batters to .073/.088/.096. * Ubaldo Jimenez in 2014 had a higher walk rate on 0-2 counts than the league average overall walk rate. * Since 2000 Hector Noesi has had the worst performance after 0-2 counts. Batters his .330/.354/.582 against him. * Jose Fernandez has the best career performance on 0-2 counts; hitters are hitting .064/.073/.089 against him. Notes * Ben, on his talents, "I'm really good at making drumming sounds with my fingers and knuckles...so if that were a sport I feel like I would probably be among the best in the world." * Sam notes that Jake's question is one of the rare times that he answers a question not sent to the podcast email address. * Sam doesn't think lineup construction would change dramatically since the best hitters would be in the middle of the lineup and high OBP players in the top and bottom. * In Episode 601 Ben and Sam discussed the Max Scherzer signing and Sam's thoughts that they should trade Stephen Strasburg. * Sam was most surprised by the Royals' low PECOTA projection. Ben thinks that the Orioles' projection is low. * Eras that Sam mentions wanting to cover are the 1920s, late 1940s (integration) and the 1980s. * Two listeners wrote in with questions about what baseball would look like if players rotated similar to a volleyball game. This question was answered previously in Episode 212. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 632: Super-Rotations Revisited, Perplexing Projections, and Other Emails * Jose Iglesias diving play Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes